Part 01

Article

Sachsen-Anhalt landslide and the Brandmauer

Date	Land	House	Note
20 Sep 2026	Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania	Landtag	Watch — AfD leads polls
20 Sep 2026	Berlin	Abgeordnetenhaus	Watch — AfD not leading
18 Apr 2027	Saarland	Landtag	Set
18 Apr 2027	Schleswig-Holstein	Landtag	Set
25 Apr 2027	North Rhine-Westphalia	Landtag	Set
30 May 2027	Bremen	Bürgerschaft	4-year term
26 Sep 2027	Lower Saxony	Landtag	Set
Autumn 2028	Bavaria	Landtag	Expected
Autumn 2028	Hesse	Landtag	Expected
Autumn 2029	Brandenburg	Landtag	Expected
Autumn 2029	Saxony	Landtag	Expected
Autumn 2029	Thuringia	Landtag	Expected
Spring 2030	Hamburg	Bürgerschaft	Expected
Spring 2031	Baden-Württemberg	Landtag	Expected
Spring 2031	Rhineland-Palatinate	Landtag	Expected

After Sachsen-Anhalt (6 Sep 2026). Calendar: Bundeswahlleiterin / Bundesrat, Sep 2026.

Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) took 44.2% in Sachsen-Anhalt on Sunday, 26.2 points clear of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), on a record turnout of 80%.¹ It won 39 of 83 seats in the Landtag, the state parliament.² It is the first time the party has finished first in an eastern state with a margin this wide. Yet it remains three seats short of a majority, and no established party opened coalition talks.

Sunday’s count showed how popular the party can be. The talks after will show whether anyone will let it govern.

The crucial variable is still the Brandmauer, the refusal of other parties to form a coalition with the AfD. Until that firewall cracks, the party functions as a shadow agenda-setter: able to force the argument on migration and industrial power, unable to sign either into law. Dexit, a Russia reset, and an AfD government stay blocked while others refuse coalition, ministerial office, or formal toleration.

A Landslide That Stops at the Door

The arithmetic is unkind to both sides. The AfD cannot govern alone. The CDU, Social Democrats (SPD), The Left, and the Greens together have 40 seats — also short. Only if Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), the left-populist list that took 5.1% and four seats, joins them does the anti-AfD bloc reach 44. A three-colour “Kenya” coalition of Greens, CDU, and SPD, so called for the flag, is not enough on its own.

Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s lead candidate, ruled out a minority government. Sven Schulze, the CDU premier, congratulated the winners and did not open talks. Sachsen-Anhalt’s AfD branch is one of five that state intelligence offices may still call a confirmed extremist endeavour — an extra barrier the party does not face in every eastern state.³

	Sachsen-Anhalt, 6 Sep
AfD share	44.2% (+16 seats vs 2021)
Seats	39 of 83 (majority is 42)
Lead over CDU	26.2 points
Anti-AfD bloc with BSW	44 seats
CDU talks with AfD	None opened

The psychological barrier is broken. The ministerial one is not. That is the distinction that matters more than the share.

Age and Stagnation, Not a Foreigners Map

A simple story — high immigration, high AfD — does not survive the state numbers. Destatis, the federal statistical office, puts foreign nationals at 7.6% of Sachsen-Anhalt’s population, fourteenth of sixteen states, against a German average of 14.8%.⁴ People aged 65 and over are 28.2%, the highest share in the country. GDP per capita is €38,559, the lowest. The state still posted a net migration gain of 25,772 in 2024 and shrank by 0.7% anyway.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern looks similar: 6.3% foreign, 27.8% aged 65 and over, AfD 35% in the last named federal result. Berlin looks the opposite: 22.5% foreign, 19.0% elderly, a net inflow of 69,000, and an AfD federal share of 15.2%. North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous western state, sits in between on foreign share (15.8%) and well below on the AfD (16.8% federally; 5.4% at the last state vote).

State	AfD, federal 2025	Foreign nationals	Age 65+
Sachsen-Anhalt	37.1%	7.6%	28.2%
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	35.0%	6.3%	27.8%
North Rhine-Westphalia	16.8%	15.8%	21.8%
Berlin	15.2%	22.5%	19.0%
Germany	20.8%	14.8%	22.5%

Migration is politically loud. At state level the AfD’s eastern strength tracks ageing, thin output, and the eastern party system more than the stock of foreigners. Public services are the largest employer in fifteen of sixteen states. That fact ranks almost nobody.

What Magdeburg Changes — and What It Does Not

Firms already live with AfD-lite: tighter talk on borders, industrial electricity as a cabinet file, eastern stakeholders who now bargain in the shadow of a first-place result. None of that required a ministry in Magdeburg.

What still waits on a finance ministry the party does not hold is the rest of the platform: a German EU exit, a wholesale reset with Russia, a reversal of the power-generation mix, abolition of the solidarity surcharge. A one- or two-point move in a poll does not bring those closer. A coalition signature would.

The probable path is that the Brandmauer holds in Magdeburg — a CDU-led arrangement that needs BSW — and that the AfD remains locked out of the cabinet while still setting the weather. If BSW refuses, the state sits in deadlock: delay, not an AfD premier. A ministerial post, a tolerated minority, or an explicit Union retreat from the firewall would be a different story.

Two More Sundays

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern votes on 20 September. Infratest dimap last had the AfD at 35% and the SPD at 32%.⁵ A red-red-green combination of Social Democrats, The Left, and Greens would still have a path if that band holds. Berlin votes the same day. The same pollster put the AfD at 18%, fourth, behind the CDU at 21% and level with The Left and the Greens.⁶ The capital is not Magdeburg. High inflows and a high foreign share sit beside an AfD that does not lead.

Watch the coalitions, not the share. If the AfD finishes first and still faces a united opposition bloc, the firewall holds as law. If a local branch of an established party forms a working majority with it, the assumption that has kept the high-delivery path remote is broken.

Watch the courts. Cologne’s merits ruling on the federal party’s extremist classification can change compliance judgements without deciding who governs.

Sachsen-Anhalt answered half the question: the party can win big. The talks in Magdeburg, and the counts in Schwerin and Berlin, answer the rest.

The definitive takeaway for this month’s balance sheet is not how high the AfD climbs. It is whether any established party is finally willing to share power with them.

References

WDR / Infratest dimap–ZDF projection, 6 September 2026, https://www1.wdr.de/politik/wahlen/afd-gewinnt-landtagswahl-in-sachsen-anhalt-klar-100.html
tagesschau, Landtagswahl Sachsen-Anhalt, https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt-172.html
Correctiv, Verfassungsschutz classifications by Land, 17 June 2026, https://correctiv.org/aktuelles/afd/2026/06/17/wie-stuft-der-verfassungsschutz-die-afd-in-den-bundeslaendern-ein/
Destatis 12411-11-01-5-B, 12411-09-01-4-B, 12711-02-02-4-B, 2024; VGR der Länder, GDP per capita 2025
NDR, “MV-Trend”, 3 September 2026, https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/landtagswahl/mv-trend-spd-verkuerzt-rueckstand-zur-afd-cdu-rutscht-weiter-ab,mvtrend-168.html
dawum, Berlin Infratest dimap 2 September 2026, https://dawum.de/Berlin/Infratest_dimap/2026-09-02/
Bundeswahlleiterin, Bundestagswahl 2025, final result by Land

Part 02

Germany

Federal snapshot and 16-Land reconciliation

16 Bundesländer · federal republic · figures below are the sum of the Land sheets, checked against the published Germany total where Destatis/VGR publishes one.

	Value	Note
Population	83.5 m	83,467,117 · -0.13% y/y
Area / density	357,239 km²	234/km²
GDP	€4,469.9 bn	VGR 2025 · real +0.2%
GDP per capita	€53,553	VGR € / 12411 pop
Unemployment	6.0%	implied from 16 Land rates · 2,787,112 people
Foreign / age 65+	14.8% / 22.5%	2024 · 12411
Net migration 2024	+860,366	sum of Land saldos
Government	CDU/CSU–SPD	Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU)
AfD	20.8%	BT 2025 Zweitstimme · 152 / 630
Bundesrat	69	sum of Land votes · GG 69
Watch	20 Sep 2026	MV Landtag · Berlin AHG

Former East (6, incl. Berlin): 16.1 m · €716.3 bn. Former West (10): 67.4 m · €3753.6 bn.

BT 2025

Party	Zweitstimme	Seats
CDU	22.6%	164
AfD	20.8%	152
SPD	16.4%	120
Grüne	11.6%	85
Linke	8.8%	64
CSU	6.0%	44
SSW	0.2%	1

Turnout 82.5%. CDU/CSU combined 28.6% / 208 seats. Poll (Infratest dimap 3 Sep 2026): AfD 27%, CDU/CSU 21%.

16-Land reconciliation

Sum of 16 vs published Germany where a DE total exists. 12411 / 12711 / 13211 / 13312 extracts in this repo are Land-only.

Item	Sum of 16	Germany	Δ	Status
Population 2025	83,467,117	83,467,117	+0	OK
Foreign nationals 2024	12,392,275	12,392,275	+0	OK
Age 65+ 2024	18,826,357	18,826,357	+0	OK
Net migration 2024	860,366	860,366	+0	OK
GDP 2025 € million	4,469,909	4,469,910.0	-1.0	OK
Unemployed 2024 (count)	2,787,112	2,787,112	+0	OK
Employed 2024 (000s)	45,987.0	45,987.0	+0	OK
Bundesrat votes	69	69	+0	OK

GDP 2025: Länder 4,469,909 vs VGR 4,469,910 (€m). Unemployment 6.0% is labour-force weighted, not a mean of Land rates.

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share of DE
Public services	15,266	33.2%
Trade & hospitality	11,645	25.3%
Manufacturing	8,062	17.5%
Finance & business	7,844	17.1%
Construction	2,605	5.7%
Agriculture	565	1.2%
Industry + construction	10,667	23.2%
Total employed	45,987	100%

13312-01-05-4-B · sum of 16 Länder. Headcount, not value added.

Sources: laender_master.csv · VGR Statistikportal · 12411 / 12711 / 13211 / 13312 · Bundeswahlleiterin BT 2025 · GG Art. 51.

Part 03

16-Länder stats

Demographics, GDP and elections compared

As of: September 2026 · Sources: laender_master.csv, laender_sectors.csv, Bundeswahlleiterin, Landeswahlleiter / polls

Terms and abbreviations

Term	Meaning
Code	ISO Bundesland id (first column in all tables) — see key below
AfD	Alternative für Deutschland
LT	Landtag (state) election % · year in Notes
AHG	Abgeordnetenhauswahl — Berlin state election (2023 repeat)
BT 2025	Bundestag (federal) Zweitstimme %

Full list: research/glossary.md

Germany total population (2025): 83,467,117 · 16 Bundesländer below.

Click a column header to sort (HTML).

Land key

Code	Land	Region
DE-BB	Brandenburg	East
DE-BE	Berlin	East
DE-BW	Baden-Württemberg	West
DE-BY	Bayern	West
DE-HB	Bremen	West
DE-HE	Hessen	West
DE-HH	Hamburg	West
DE-MV	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	East
DE-NI	Niedersachsen	West
DE-NW	Nordrhein-Westfalen	West
DE-RP	Rheinland-Pfalz	West
DE-SH	Schleswig-Holstein	West
DE-SL	Saarland	West
DE-SN	Sachsen	East
DE-ST	Sachsen-Anhalt	East
DE-TH	Thüringen	East

Demographics & population

Code	Pop 2025	Δ y/y	Foreign %	Age 65+ %	Net mig 2024
DE-BB	2,551,889	-0.2%	7.2%	26.3%	+32,813
DE-BE	3,700,577	0.4%	22.5%	19.0%	+68,969
DE-BW	11,238,761	-0.1%	18.2%	21.3%	+78,195
DE-BY	13,245,503	-0.0%	15.6%	21.4%	+145,228
DE-HB	706,915	0.3%	22.8%	20.6%	+11,676
DE-HE	6,278,594	-0.0%	18.4%	21.5%	+66,390
DE-HH	1,869,473	0.4%	19.3%	17.8%	+27,349
DE-MV	1,573,685	0.0%	6.3%	27.8%	+17,964
DE-NI	8,000,826	-0.1%	11.6%	23.0%	+68,100
DE-NW	17,986,214	-0.3%	15.8%	21.8%	+172,718
DE-RP	4,123,022	-0.2%	13.9%	23.1%	+43,168
DE-SH	2,958,519	-0.0%	10.3%	23.8%	+38,198
DE-SL	1,007,342	-0.5%	15.1%	25.2%	+10,572
DE-SN	4,026,599	-0.4%	8.1%	26.9%	+38,653
DE-ST	2,120,252	-0.7%	7.6%	28.2%	+25,772
DE-TH	2,078,946	-1.0%	8.3%	27.8%	+14,601

Economy & employment

Code	GDP/cap 2025	Real Δ GDP 2025	Unemp 2024	Top sector (jobs)
DE-BB	€40,793	-0.2%	6.1%	Public services (36%)
DE-BE	€58,988	1.1%	9.7%	Public services (39%)
DE-BW	€59,358	-0.6%	4.2%	Public services (30%)
DE-BY	€62,228	0.5%	3.7%	Public services (30%)
DE-HB	€60,843	1.4%	11.1%	Public services (34%)
DE-HE	€60,907	-0.2%	5.5%	Public services (31%)
DE-HH	€90,025	0.8%	8.0%	Trade & hospitality (32%)
DE-MV	€40,405	1.4%	7.9%	Public services (39%)
DE-NI	€49,919	0.7%	5.9%	Public services (34%)
DE-NW	€50,562	0.3%	7.5%	Public services (35%)
DE-RP	€44,935	-0.5%	5.3%	Public services (36%)
DE-SH	€44,362	0.9%	5.7%	Public services (37%)
DE-SL	€42,859	-0.9%	7.0%	Public services (35%)
DE-SN	€41,716	-0.2%	6.5%	Public services (34%)
DE-ST	€38,559	-0.2%	7.7%	Public services (36%)
DE-TH	€38,788	0.4%	6.2%	Public services (34%)

Elections (AfD)

Code	AfD LT	AfD BT 2025	Poll / margin
DE-BB	29.2% (2024)	32.5%	—
DE-BE	— (2023 AHG)	15.2%	18 · 4th (~−3 vs CDU) · poll Infratest Sep 2026
DE-BW	18.8% (2026)	19.8%	—
DE-BY	14.6% (2023)	19.0%	—
DE-HB	12.0% (2023)	15.1%	—
DE-HE	18.4% (2023)	17.8%	—
DE-HH	14.5% (2025)	10.9%	—
DE-MV	16.7% (2021)	35.0%	35 · +3 vs SPD · poll Infratest Aug 2026
DE-NI	10.9% (2022)	17.8%	—
DE-NW	5.4% (2022)	16.8%	—
DE-RP	19.5% (2026)	20.1%	—
DE-SH	4.4% (2022)	16.3%	—
DE-SL	6.1% (2022)	21.6%	—
DE-SN	30.6% (2024)	37.3%	—
DE-ST	44.2% (2026 result)	37.1%	44.2 · +26.2 vs CDU · result 6 Sep 2026
DE-TH	32.8% (2024)	38.6%	—

Notes

Foreign % / Age 65+ / Net migration: Destatis 12411-11-01-5-B, 12411-09-01-4-B, 12711-02-02-4-B (2024).
Top sector: 13312-01-05-4-B (Erwerbstätige headcount); not GDP expenditure.
Poll column: Sachsen-Anhalt (DE-ST) = result 6 Sep 2026; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (DE-MV) and Berlin (DE-BE) = pre-election polls.

Rebuild: python research/rebuild_all.py or python research/build_master_comparison.py

Part 04

Fact sheets

One page per Bundesland

01 Baden-Württemberg BW Former West
02 Bavaria BY Former West
03 Berlin BE Former East
04 Brandenburg BB Former East
05 Bremen HB Former West
06 Hamburg HH Former West
07 Hesse HE Former West
08 Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania MV Former East
09 Lower Saxony NI Former West
10 North Rhine-Westphalia NW Former West
11 Rhineland-Palatinate RP Former West
12 Saarland SL Former West
13 Schleswig-Holstein SH Former West
14 Saxony SN Former East
15 Saxony-Anhalt ST Former East
16 Thuringia TH Former East

Fact sheet

Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg · DE-BW · Former West

Industrial south-west; automotive, machinery, Mittelstand; Green-CDU model.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	11.2 m	3rd of 16 · -0.06% · 13.5% of DE
Area / density	35,751 km²	314/km² · Former West
GDP	€667.1 bn	14.92% of DE · rank 3
GDP per capita	€59,358	rank 5 · real -0.6% (2025)
Unemployment	4.2%	rank 15 · 269,990 people
Foreign / age 65+	18.2% / 21.3%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+78,195	+7.0‰
Government	Grüne / CDU	MP Winfried Kretschmann (Grüne) · 6 BR votes
AfD	18.8%	LT 2026 · BT 2025 19.8%
Election	Landtag 8 Mar 2026	Landtag
Capital / house	Stuttgart	Landtag 143 seats

AfD +9 pp at 2026 Landtag (18.8%) but still third; Grüne–CDU Kenya holds. Western proof that AfD surge ≠ executive access when mainstream blocs cooperate.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
Grüne	32.6% (2021)	30.2% (2026)	—
CDU	24.1% (2021)	29.7% (2026)	—
AfD	9.7% (2021)	18.8% (2026)	19.8%
SPD	11.0% (2021)	7.5% (2026)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	1,902	29.7%
Manufacturing	1,556	24.3%
Trade & hospitality	1,554	24.2%
Finance & business	992	15.5%
Industry + construction	1,903	29.7%

Employed 6,415,000 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Bavaria

Bayern · DE-BY · Former West

Largest Flächenland; CSU heartland, industry, Alps tourism, Munich tech.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	13.2 m	2nd of 16 · -0.03% · 15.9% of DE
Area / density	70,550 km²	188/km² · Former West
GDP	€824.2 bn	18.44% of DE · rank 2
GDP per capita	€62,228	rank 2 · real +0.5% (2025)
Unemployment	3.7%	rank 16 · 285,234 people
Foreign / age 65+	15.6% / 21.4%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+145,228	+11.0‰
Government	CSU / Freie Wähler	MP Markus Söder (CSU) · 6 BR votes
AfD	14.6%	LT 2023 · BT 2025 19.0%
Election	Landtag 8 Oct 2023	Landtag
Capital / house	Munich	Landtag 180 seats

CSU firewall stable; AfD ~15% Landtag vs 19% BT 2025. Bavaria anchors western Brandmauer — no realistic AfD executive path.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
CSU	37.2% (2018)	37.0% (2023)	—
FW	11.6% (2018)	15.8% (2023)	—
AfD	10.2% (2018)	14.6% (2023)	19.0%
Grüne	17.5% (2018)	14.4% (2023)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	2,390	30.4%
Trade & hospitality	1,997	25.4%
Manufacturing	1,613	20.5%
Finance & business	1,305	16.6%
Industry + construction	2,068	26.3%

Employed 7,869,900 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Berlin

Berlin · DE-BE · Former East

Capital city-state; services, startups, culture, federal hub.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	3.7 m	8th of 16 · +0.42% · 4.4% of DE
Area / density	892 km²	4,149/km² · Former East
GDP	€218.3 bn	4.88% of DE · rank 6
GDP per capita	€58,988	rank 6 · real +1.1% (2025)
Unemployment	9.7%	rank 2 · 203,242 people
Foreign / age 65+	22.5% / 19.0%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+68,969	+18.7‰
Government	CDU / SPD	Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) · 4 BR votes
AfD	18% poll	Sep 2026 · BT 2025 15.2%
Election	20 Sep 2026	Abgeordnetenhaus
Capital / house	Berlin	Abgeordnetenhaus 159

Fragmented five-way race; AfD does not lead. Urban ceiling case vs eastern rural surges.

Politics

AHG = Abgeordnetenhauswahl (Berlin state election) · BT = Bundestag (federal). Poll: Infratest dimap, Sep 2026.

Party	AHG 2023	AHG 2016	BT 2025	Poll Sep 2026	AHG seats
CDU	28.2%	17.6%	18.3%	21%	52
Linke	12.2%	15.6%	19.9%	19%	22
AfD	9.1%	14.2%	15.2%	18%	17
Grüne	18.4%	15.2%	16.8%	18%	34
SPD	18.4%	21.6%	15.1%	11%	34
FDP	4.6%	6.7%	3.8%	—	0
BSW	—	—	6.7%	—	—

Margin vs #2 (poll): CDU +2 pp ahead of Linke/AfD/Grüne cluster (~21% vs ~19%). Turnout AHG 2023: 62.9% (repeat election) · BT 2025: 75.6%.

Note: 2021 Abgeordnetenhaus election annulled; 2023 repeat is last valid AHG result.

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	861	39.2%
Trade & hospitality	577	26.3%
Finance & business	526	23.9%
Manufacturing	139	6.3%
Industry + construction	234	10.6%

Employed 2,197,400 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Brandenburg

Brandenburg · DE-BB · Former East

Berlin ring; energy transition, Tesla Gigafactory, lakes and forests.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	2.6 m	10th of 16 · -0.19% · 3.1% of DE
Area / density	29,479 km²	87/km² · Former East
GDP	€104.1 bn	2.33% of DE · rank 11
GDP per capita	€40,793	rank 13 · real -0.2% (2025)
Unemployment	6.1%	rank 10 · 82,795 people
Foreign / age 65+	7.2% / 26.3%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+32,813	+12.8‰
Government	SPD / BSW / CDU	MP Dietmar Woidke (SPD) · 4 BR votes
AfD	29.2%	LT 2024 · BT 2025 32.5%
Election	Landtag 22 Sep 2024	Landtag
Capital / house	Potsdam	Landtag 88 seats

AfD confirmed extremist (Verfassungsschutz). Woidke scraped re-election 2024 by 1.7 pp; BSW in government. Template for firewall breach anxiety without AfD in office.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
SPD	26.2% (2019)	30.9% (2024)	—
AfD	23.5% (2019)	29.2% (2024)	32.5%
BSW	—% (—)	13.5% (2024)	—
CDU	15.6% (2019)	12.1% (2024)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	414	36.1%
Trade & hospitality	281	24.5%
Finance & business	177	15.4%
Manufacturing	157	13.7%
Industry + construction	250	21.8%

Employed 1,146,700 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Bremen

Bremen · DE-HB · Former West

Smallest Flächenland; dual-city state Bremen–Bremerhaven; ports, aerospace.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	0.7 m	16th of 16 · +0.29% · 0.8% of DE
Area / density	419 km²	1,687/km² · Former West
GDP	€43.0 bn	0.96% of DE · rank 16
GDP per capita	€60,843	rank 4 · real +1.4% (2025)
Unemployment	11.1%	rank 1 · 41,116 people
Foreign / age 65+	22.8% / 20.6%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+11,676	+16.6‰
Government	SPD / Grüne / Linke	Mayor Andreas Bovenschulte (SPD) · 3 BR votes
AfD	12.0%	LT 2023 · BT 2025 15.1%
Election	Bürgerschaft 14 May 2023	Bürgerschaft
Capital / house	Bremen	Bürgerschaft 83 seats

Highest unemployment (11.1%). AfD doubled 2019→2023 but Senate remains left-of-centre; city-state labour-market stress without eastern AfD dominance.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
SPD	24.9% (2019)	31.0% (2023)	—
CDU	16.8% (2019)	19.5% (2023)	—
Grüne	16.5% (2019)	17.0% (2023)	—
AfD	6.1% (2019)	12.0% (2023)	15.1%

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	151	33.9%
Trade & hospitality	128	28.9%
Finance & business	87	19.5%
Manufacturing	63	14.1%
Industry + construction	79	17.7%

Employed 445,200 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Hamburg

Hamburg · DE-HH · Former West

Port metropolis; media, logistics, Airbus; city-state.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	1.9 m	13th of 16 · +0.37% · 2.2% of DE
Area / density	755 km²	2,476/km² · Former West
GDP	€168.3 bn	3.77% of DE · rank 8
GDP per capita	€90,025	rank 1 · real +0.8% (2025)
Unemployment	8.0%	rank 3 · 88,471 people
Foreign / age 65+	19.3% / 17.8%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+27,349	+14.7‰
Government	SPD / Grüne	First Mayor Peter Tschentscher (SPD) · 3 BR votes
AfD	14.5%	LT 2025 · BT 2025 10.9%
Election	Bürgerschaft 2 Mar 2025	Bürgerschaft
Capital / house	Hamburg	Bürgerschaft 121 seats

CDU first in 2025 but SPD–Grüne renewed Senate; AfD ~14% — rising but contained. Port exposure to trade/shipping cycles.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
CDU	18.4% (2020)	23.7% (2025)	—
SPD	39.0% (2020)	21.5% (2025)	—
AfD	5.3% (2020)	14.5% (2025)	10.9%
Grüne	16.5% (2020)	14.3% (2025)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Trade & hospitality	428	31.5%
Public services	414	30.5%
Finance & business	337	24.8%
Manufacturing	132	9.7%
Industry + construction	177	13.1%

Employed 1,358,500 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Hesse

Hessen · DE-HE · Former West

Financial centre Frankfurt; chemical belt, Rhine-Main logistics.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	6.3 m	5th of 16 · -0.04% · 7.5% of DE
Area / density	21,115 km²	297/km² · Former West
GDP	€382.4 bn	8.56% of DE · rank 5
GDP per capita	€60,907	rank 3 · real -0.2% (2025)
Unemployment	5.5%	rank 13 · 194,912 people
Foreign / age 65+	18.4% / 21.5%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+66,390	+10.6‰
Government	CDU / SPD	MP Boris Rhein (CDU) · 5 BR votes
AfD	18.4%	LT 2023 · BT 2025 17.8%
Election	Landtag 8 Oct 2023	Landtag
Capital / house	Wiesbaden	Landtag 133 seats

AfD 18.4% Landtag — western hotspot after Saarland. Frankfurt financial-services cluster; migration salience in Rhine-Main.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
CDU	27.0% (2018)	34.6% (2023)	—
AfD	13.1% (2018)	18.4% (2023)	17.8%
SPD	19.8% (2018)	15.1% (2023)	—
Grüne	19.8% (2018)	14.8% (2023)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	1,124	31.1%
Trade & hospitality	992	27.5%
Finance & business	764	21.2%
Manufacturing	514	14.2%
Industry + construction	705	19.5%

Employed 3,613,700 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern · DE-MV · Former East

Baltic coast and lakes; tourism, ports, agriculture.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	1.6 m	14th of 16 · +0.01% · 1.9% of DE
Area / density	23,295 km²	68/km² · Former East
GDP	€63.6 bn	1.42% of DE · rank 14
GDP per capita	€40,405	rank 14 · real +1.4% (2025)
Unemployment	7.9%	rank 4 · 64,944 people
Foreign / age 65+	6.3% / 27.8%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+17,964	+11.4‰
Government	SPD / Die Linke	MP Manuela Schwesig (SPD) · 3 BR votes
AfD	35% poll	Sep 2026 · BT 2025 35.0%
Election	20 Sep 2026	Landtag
Capital / house	Schwerin	Landtag 71 (79 after 2021 overhang)

AfD could finish first (poll ~35% vs SPD ~32%) without entering government if Brandmauer holds.

Politics

LT = Landtag (state parliament) · BT = Bundestag (federal). Poll: Infratest dimap, Sep 2026.

Party	LT 2021	LT 2016	BT 2025	Poll Sep 2026	LT seats
AfD	16.7%	20.8%	35.0%	35%	14
SPD	39.6%	30.6%	12.4%	32%	34
CDU	13.3%	19.0%	17.8%	8%	12
Linke	9.9%	13.6%	12.0%	11%	9
Grüne	6.3%	4.8%	5.4%	5%	5
FDP	5.8%	3.0%	3.2%	—	3
BSW	—	—	10.6%	4%	—

Margin vs #2 (poll): AfD +3 pp ahead of SPD (35% vs 32%). Turnout LT 2021: 70.8% · BT 2025: 79.5%. BSW poll 4% is below the 5% threshold.

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	291	38.7%
Trade & hospitality	190	25.2%
Finance & business	110	14.6%
Manufacturing	89	11.8%
Industry + construction	142	18.8%

Employed 752,200 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Lower Saxony

Niedersachsen · DE-NI · Former West

VW heartland; agriculture, wind energy, North Sea coast, Hannover expo hub.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	8.0 m	4th of 16 · -0.05% · 9.6% of DE
Area / density	47,609 km²	168/km² · Former West
GDP	€399.4 bn	8.94% of DE · rank 4
GDP per capita	€49,919	rank 8 · real +0.7% (2025)
Unemployment	5.9%	rank 11 · 263,090 people
Foreign / age 65+	11.6% / 23.0%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+68,100	+8.5‰
Government	SPD / Grüne	MP Stephan Weil (SPD) · 6 BR votes
AfD	10.9%	LT 2022 · BT 2025 17.8%
Election	Landtag 9 Oct 2022	Landtag
Capital / house	Hanover	Landtag 137 seats

Weil’s SPD stable; AfD 10.9% — below BT 17.8%. VW/industrial transition and Verfassungsschutz watch on AfD NI (confirmed extremist).

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
SPD	36.9% (2017)	33.4% (2022)	—
CDU	33.6% (2017)	28.2% (2022)	—
Grüne	8.7% (2017)	11.9% (2022)	—
AfD	6.5% (2017)	10.9% (2022)	17.8%

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	1,452	34.3%
Trade & hospitality	1,047	24.7%
Manufacturing	750	17.7%
Finance & business	615	14.5%
Industry + construction	1,020	24.1%

Employed 4,237,300 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

North Rhine-Westphalia

Nordrhein-Westfalen · DE-NW · Former West

Most populous Land; Ruhr industry, Cologne media, diversified services.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	18.0 m	1st of 16 · -0.27% · 21.5% of DE
Area / density	34,113 km²	527/km² · Former West
GDP	€909.4 bn	20.35% of DE · rank 1
GDP per capita	€50,562	rank 7 · real +0.3% (2025)
Unemployment	7.5%	rank 6 · 749,712 people
Foreign / age 65+	15.8% / 21.8%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+172,718	+9.6‰
Government	CDU / Grüne	MP Hendrik Wüst (CDU) · 6 BR votes
AfD	5.4%	LT 2022 · BT 2025 16.8%
Election	Landtag 15 May 2022	Landtag
Capital / house	Düsseldorf	Landtag 195 seats

AfD 5.4% Landtag — lowest major-Land footprint. NRW sets western baseline; Ruhr structural change vs AfD weakness.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
CDU	33.0% (2017)	35.7% (2022)	—
SPD	31.2% (2017)	26.7% (2022)	—
Grüne	6.4% (2017)	18.2% (2022)	—
AfD	7.4% (2017)	5.4% (2022)	16.8%

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	3,407	34.7%
Trade & hospitality	2,503	25.5%
Finance & business	1,725	17.6%
Manufacturing	1,607	16.4%
Industry + construction	2,111	21.5%

Employed 9,824,500 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Rhineland-Palatinate

Rheinland-Pfalz · DE-RP · Former West

Wine country; chemicals (Ludwigshafen), SMEs, US bases on Rhine.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	4.1 m	6th of 16 · -0.16% · 4.9% of DE
Area / density	19,847 km²	208/km² · Former West
GDP	€185.3 bn	4.14% of DE · rank 7
GDP per capita	€44,935	rank 9 · real -0.5% (2025)
Unemployment	5.3%	rank 14 · 120,552 people
Foreign / age 65+	13.9% / 23.1%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+43,168	+10.5‰
Government	CDU / SPD	MP Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) — coalition talks after LT 2026 · 4 BR votes
AfD	19.5%	LT 2026 · BT 2025 20.1%
Election	Landtag 22 Mar 2026	Landtag
Capital / house	Mainz	Landtag 101 seats

AfD +11.2 pp at 2026 Landtag (19.5%) — western surge post-Dreyer era. CDU–SPD grand coalition likely; firewall intact.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
CDU	31.7% (2021)	31.0% (2026)	—
SPD	35.7% (2021)	25.9% (2026)	—
AfD	8.3% (2021)	19.5% (2026)	20.1%
Grüne	10.8% (2021)	7.9% (2026)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	738	35.8%
Trade & hospitality	494	24.0%
Manufacturing	382	18.5%
Finance & business	282	13.7%
Industry + construction	510	24.8%

Employed 2,059,900 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Saarland

Saarland · DE-SL · Former West

Smallest by population; Franco-German, steel legacy, car suppliers.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	1.0 m	15th of 16 · -0.47% · 1.2% of DE
Area / density	2,570 km²	392/km² · Former West
GDP	€43.2 bn	0.97% of DE · rank 15
GDP per capita	€42,859	rank 11 · real -0.9% (2025)
Unemployment	7.0%	rank 7 · 37,241 people
Foreign / age 65+	15.1% / 25.2%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+10,572	+10.4‰
Government	SPD (solo)	MP Anke Rehlinger (SPD) · 3 BR votes
AfD	6.1%	LT 2022 · BT 2025 21.6%
Election	Landtag 27 Mar 2022	Landtag
Capital / house	Saarbrücken	Landtag 51 seats

AfD 21.6% BT 2025 vs 6.1% Landtag 2022 — federal/local gap. Rehlinger SPD monopoly; high unemployment 7.0%.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
SPD	29.6% (2017)	43.4% (2022)	—
CDU	40.7% (2017)	28.5% (2022)	—
AfD	6.2% (2017)	6.1% (2022)	21.6%
Linke	12.8% (2017)	5.0% (2022)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	184	35.4%
Trade & hospitality	126	24.2%
Manufacturing	100	19.1%
Finance & business	81	15.5%
Industry + construction	127	24.4%

Employed 520,800 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Schleswig-Holstein

Schleswig-Holstein · DE-SH · Former West

Baltic coast; wind energy, Denmark gateway, Kiel naval base.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	3.0 m	9th of 16 · -0.03% · 3.5% of DE
Area / density	15,804 km²	187/km² · Former West
GDP	€131.2 bn	2.94% of DE · rank 10
GDP per capita	€44,362	rank 10 · real +0.9% (2025)
Unemployment	5.7%	rank 12 · 92,493 people
Foreign / age 65+	10.3% / 23.8%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+38,198	+12.9‰
Government	CDU / Grüne / SPD	MP Daniel Günther (CDU) · 4 BR votes
AfD	4.4%	LT 2022 · BT 2025 16.3%
Election	Landtag 8 May 2022	Landtag
Capital / house	Kiel	Landtag 69 seats

Günther landslide 43% CDU; AfD 4.4% Landtag — national floor. SSW Danish minority exempt from 5% rule.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
CDU	32.0% (2017)	43.4% (2022)	—
SPD	27.3% (2017)	16.7% (2022)	—
Grüne	12.9% (2017)	12.5% (2022)	—
AfD	6.0% (2017)	4.4% (2022)	16.3%

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	541	36.7%
Trade & hospitality	393	26.6%
Finance & business	221	15.0%
Manufacturing	192	13.0%
Industry + construction	287	19.4%

Employed 1,476,900 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Saxony

Sachsen · DE-SN · Former East

Silicon Saxony; Dresden, Leipzig hubs; eastern industrial core.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	4.0 m	7th of 16 · -0.39% · 4.8% of DE
Area / density	18,416 km²	219/km² · Former East
GDP	€168.0 bn	3.76% of DE · rank 9
GDP per capita	€41,716	rank 12 · real -0.2% (2025)
Unemployment	6.5%	rank 8 · 139,751 people
Foreign / age 65+	8.1% / 26.9%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+38,653	+9.6‰
Government	CDU / SPD	MP Michael Kretschmer (CDU) · 4 BR votes
AfD	30.6%	LT 2024 · BT 2025 37.3%
Election	Landtag 1 Sep 2024	Landtag
Capital / house	Dresden	Landtag 120 seats

AfD confirmed extremist; 30.6% — lost by 1.3 pp to Kretschmer 2024. Neck-and-neck eastern template before ST breakthrough.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
CDU	32.1% (2019)	31.9% (2024)	—
AfD	27.5% (2019)	30.6% (2024)	37.3%
BSW	—% (—)	11.8% (2024)	—
SPD	7.7% (2019)	7.8% (2024)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	694	33.6%
Trade & hospitality	489	23.7%
Manufacturing	377	18.3%
Finance & business	336	16.3%
Industry + construction	521	25.2%

Employed 2,064,500 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Saxony-Anhalt

Sachsen-Anhalt · DE-ST · Former East

Eastern Neue Länder state; chemicals, logistics, Magdeburg and Halle.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	2.1 m	11th of 16 · -0.72% · 2.5% of DE
Area / density	20,452 km²	104/km² · Former East
GDP	€81.8 bn	1.83% of DE · rank 12
GDP per capita	€38,559	rank 16 · real -0.2% (2025)
Unemployment	7.7%	rank 5 · 84,801 people
Foreign / age 65+	7.6% / 28.2%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+25,772	+12.1‰
Population 2016→2025	−5.2% (−116k)	Resident stock · Destatis 12411
Government	CDU / SPD / FDP (caretaker)	MP Sven Schulze (CDU) · 4 BR votes
AfD	44.2%	LT 2026 · 1st · BT 2025 37.1%
Election	6 Sep 2026	AfD first · 39/83 · no majority
Capital / house	Magdeburg	Landtag 83 (2026)

First Landtag win for AfD (44.2%, 39/83) — three seats short of a majority. Brandmauer now depends on BSW.

Politics

LT = Landtag (state parliament) · BT = Bundestag (federal).

Party	LT 2026	LT 2021	BT 2025	LT seats 2026
AfD	44.2%	20.8%	37.1%	39
CDU	18.0%	37.1%	19.2%	16
Linke	~9.0%	11.0%	10.8%	8
SPD	~8.8%	8.4%	11.0%	8
Grüne	~8.7%	5.9%	4.4%	8
BSW	5.1%	—	11.2%	4
FDP	2.0%	6.4%	3.1%	0

LT 2026: Infratest dimap/ZDF projection, 6 Sep 2026 ~20:30 — preliminary.

Margin vs #2: AfD +26.2 pp ahead of CDU (44.2% vs 18.0%). Turnout LT 2026: 80.0% (record) · LT 2021: 60.3% · BT 2025: 77.7%.

Coalition outlook (post-election)

Bloc	Seats	Majority (42)?
AfD	39	No (−3)
CDU + SPD + Linke + Grüne	40	No (−2)
CDU + SPD + Linke + Grüne + BSW	44	Yes

Brandmauer arithmetic depends on BSW (4 seats). AfD Spitzenkandidat Ulrich Siegmund ruled out a minority government. CDU’s Schulze congratulated AfD but has not opened coalition talks.

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	354	35.8%
Trade & hospitality	229	23.1%
Manufacturing	171	17.3%
Finance & business	145	14.7%
Industry + construction	242	24.5%

Employed 989,100 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Fact sheet

Thuringia

Thüringen · DE-TH · Former East

Central Germany optics/automotive supply; Jena science; forested Land.

	Value	vs Germany / note
Population	2.1 m	12th of 16 · -1.02% · 2.5% of DE
Area / density	16,172 km²	129/km² · Former East
GDP	€80.6 bn	1.8% of DE · rank 13
GDP per capita	€38,788	rank 15 · real +0.4% (2025)
Unemployment	6.2%	rank 9 · 68,768 people
Foreign / age 65+	8.3% / 27.8%	DE 14.8% / 22.5%
Net migration 2024	+14,601	+7.0‰
Government	CDU / BSW	MP Mario Voigt (CDU) · 4 BR votes
AfD	32.8%	LT 2024 · BT 2025 38.6%
Election	Landtag 1 Sep 2024 · MP elected Dec 2024	Landtag
Capital / house	Erfurt	Landtag 88 seats

AfD 38.6% BT / 32.8% LT — confirmed extremist. Voigt (CDU) governs with BSW after Ramelow era — partial firewall stress without AfD ministers.

Politics

Party	Prior LT	Latest LT	BT 2025
AfD	23.4% (2019)	32.8% (2024)	38.6%
CDU	21.7% (2019)	23.6% (2024)	—
BSW	—% (—)	15.8% (2024)	—
Linke	31.0% (2019)	13.1% (2024)	—

Jobs (2024)

Sector	000s	Share
Public services	348	34.2%
Manufacturing	222	21.9%
Trade & hospitality	218	21.4%
Finance & business	141	13.9%
Industry + construction	292	28.8%

Employed 1,015,400 · 13312-01-05-4-B headcount (not GDP share).

Sources: research/land_facts_sources.md · Data as of Sep 2026 unless noted.

Part 05

PESTLE

Political, economic and social read of the 16 Länder

As of: September 2026 · Data: research/laender_master_comparison.md, laender_master.csv, 16 Land fact sheets, electoral_margin_matrix.md

Terms and abbreviations

Term	Meaning
AfD	Alternative für Deutschland
BT	Bundestag (federal parliament) election — party-list (Zweitstimme) share
LT	Landtag (state parliament) election share
Brandmauer	“Firewall” — mainstream parties refuse coalitions with AfD
BSW	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht
CDU / CSU / SPD	Christian Democrats / Bavarian CSU / Social Democrats
GDP/cap	GDP per capita (nominal €)
pp	Percentage points
ST	Sachsen-Anhalt (Saxony-Anhalt)
MV	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
BE	Berlin
TH	Thüringen (Thuringia)
SN	Sachsen (Saxony)
NW	Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia)
Verfassungsschutz	Domestic intelligence (Office for the Protection of the Constitution)

Full list: research/glossary.md

Analyst thesis (publishable view)

Frame	Content
Decision question	Should international firms reprice German institutional risk as regime change, or as agenda capture with firewall intact?
Base case (~65%)	Agenda capture — Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) sets migration/industrial-electricity debate; mainstream Bundesländer (Länder) governments still write budgets and appoint ministers. Sachsen-Anhalt (ST) proved first place ≠ executive.
Forbidden base case	Dexit, Russia-sanctions reset, AfD-led federal cabinet — do not price without Bundestag arithmetic change.
Kill condition	Executive breach — AfD Ministerpräsident (state premier), ministerial posts, or formal toleration by CDU/SPD. Recant if any of the four triggers in `electoral_margin_matrix.md` fire.
ST receipt (6 Sep)	AfD 44.2%, 39/83 seats, +26.2 pp vs CDU — largest margin in set — yet 42-seat majority requires Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). Brandmauer (firewall) arithmetically viable; psychological barrier broken.

One-line bet: Reprice eastern stakeholder friction and migration-enforcement tail risk; do not reprice constitutional order until a coalition signature includes AfD.

Executive summary

Germany’s near-term political risk is policy capture, not regime change. AfD Bundestag (BT) 2025 Zweitstimme is ~31% weighted east vs ~18% west — but Land-level structure does not map cleanly onto a “high migration = high AfD” story:

Pattern	Data (2024 demographics · BT 2025)	Implication
East	Foreign 11.0% avg vs DE 14.8%; age 65+ 25.4%; GDP/cap laggards Sachsen-Anhalt (ST) €38.6k, Thüringen (TH) €38.8k	AfD strength tracks ageing + low GDP/cap + east, not foreign share
Metro inflow	Berlin (BE) foreign 22.5%, net mig +69k; AfD BT 15.2%	High immigration coexists with sub-national AfD ceiling
ST outlier	Foreign 7.6% (14th/16), age 65+ 28.2% (1st), net mig +26k yet pop −0.7%	Shrinkage + ageing dominate; positive net migration does not offset outflow
Sector jobs	Top employer in 15/16 Länder = public/services (30–39% of jobs, 13312)	Sector mix is weak discriminator for AfD variance — use with GDP/cap and demography

Brandmauer (firewall): Still blocks executive power in almost all Länder. Sachsen-Anhalt (6 Sep 2026) broke the psychological barrier: AfD 44.2%, first place, 39/83 seats, three short of a majority.

Reprice: migration enforcement rhetoric, industrial electricity, eastern Landtag leverage. Do not reprice federal executive access until electoral_margin_matrix.md recant triggers fire.

P — Political

Factor	National	East	West
AfD BT 2025	20.8%	~34.6% avg (incl. Berlin)	~17.9%
Firewall	Merz CDU/CSU–SPD federal	ST pivot needs BSW; TH Voigt+BSW	Nordrhein-Westfalen (NW) AfD 5.4% LT
Verfassungsschutz	Federal AfD suspended (VG Köln)	Confirmed extremist: BB, NI, SN, ST, TH	—
2026 watch	—	ST done; Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV) / Berlin (BE) 20 Sep	Baden-Württemberg (BW) / Rheinland-Pfalz (RP) already voted

Key insight: First-place AfD in Sachsen-Anhalt (ST) ≠ government. Anti-AfD bloc 44 seats with BSW. MV polls show 3 pp gap — rot-rot-grün (SPD+Linke+Grüne) viable. Berlin AfD ~18%, not leading.

E — Economic

Metric	Leaders	Laggards	Spread
GDP/cap 2025	HH €90k, HE €61k, BW €59k	ST €38.6k, TH €38.8k, SL €42.9k	~2.3×
Real growth 2025	MV +1.4%, HB +1.4%, BE +1.1%	BW −0.6%, HE −0.2%, ST −0.2%	Recovery uneven
Unemployment 2024	HB 11.1%, BE 9.7%	BY 3.7%, BW 4.2%	Labour market dualism
GDP share	NW 20.4%, BY 18.4%	SL 1.0%, MV 1.4%	NRW + BY = ~39% of DE

Industrial risk: Auto/chemicals (BW, BY, NW, SL); energy-intensive margins tied to federal power-price politics, not Land governments alone.

East: Lower GDP/cap but not uniformly poor — BB/MV mid-tier; ST lowest per capita.

Theme	Leaders / laggards (2024–25)	AfD link
Foreign nationals	HB 22.8%, BE 22.5%, BW 18.2% · laggards MV 6.3%, BB 7.2%, ST 7.6%	Inverse at Land level — east AfD high with low foreign share
Age 65+	ST 28.2%, TH 27.8%, MV 27.8% · HH 17.8%, BE 19.0%	Positive — eastern Länder oldest; ST #1 on both AfD LT and 65+
Net migration 2024	NW +173k, BY +145k, BE +69k · TH +15k, SL +11k	Inflow does not prevent AfD surges (ST +26k while pop falls)
Pop change y/y	HH/BE +0.4% · TH −1.0%, ST −0.7%	Shrinkage correlates with east; Berlin grows with high foreign %
Unemployment 2024	HB 11.1%, BE 9.7% · BY 3.7%, BW 4.2%	Labour stress in city-states; east mid-tier (ST 7.7%, MV 7.9%)

Inference (not deterministic): AfD eastern strength aligns with ageing + stagnation + lower GDP/cap more than headline migration stock. Migration is salient politically (federal debate, MV polling) but Land-level foreign % is lower in AfD hotspots than in Berlin/Hamburg.

Education remains top voter issue in MV (NDR) — links social grievance to Land policy levers Schwesig controls.

T — Technological

Cluster	Länder
Auto / mobility	BW, BY, NI (VW), SL
Semiconductors / tech	SN (Silicon Saxony), BB (Giga Berlin), BY (Munich)
Wind / renewables	SH, NI, MV (offshore), BB
Pharma / chem	HE (Frankfurt), NW, RP (Ludwigshafen)

Transition friction: Green industrial policy vs AfD rollback narrative — Land governments set planning/permitting tone but EU/federal frames dominate.

L — Legal / institutional

Mechanism	Relevance
Brandmauer	Informal; tested in ST coalition math
Verfassungsschutz	Limits CDU cooperation with AfD in 5 Länder
Bundesrat	69 votes; eastern Länder 24 combined — blocking minority on federal legislation
Schuldenbremse	Binds federal + local investment; AfD and CDU both cite fiscal limits
EU law	Länder implement; AfD executive would clash on migration/energy — legal friction tail

Thuringia precedent: CDU–BSW cooperation without AfD — partial firewall erosion, not full breach.

E — Environmental

Issue	Hotspots
Coal exit / lignite	BB, SN, TH, ST
Water stress	Eastern drought years; MV lakes tourism
Nature / wind siting	SH, NI — AfD local opposition to turbines
EU Green Deal	All; east sees cost; west industry compliance

Cross-Land comparison matrix

Land codes: ST Sachsen-Anhalt · TH Thüringen · SN Sachsen · MV Mecklenburg-Vorpommern · BB Brandenburg · BE Berlin · NW Nordrhein-Westfalen · LT = Landtag election %

Land	AfD BT'25	Foreign %	65+ %	Net mig	GDP/c	Sector	Stress
Sachsen-Anhalt (ST)	37.1%	7.6%	28.2%	+26k	16	Public svcs 36%	Critical — AfD 1st LT'26, no majority
Thüringen (TH)	38.6%	8.3%	27.8%	+15k	15	Public svcs 34%	High — AfD 1st LT'24, Voigt+BSW
Sachsen (SN)	37.3%	8.1%	26.9%	+39k	11	Public svcs 34%	High — AfD 30.6%, CDU holds
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV)	35.0%	6.3%	27.8%	+18k	12	Public svcs 39%	Watch — 20 Sep election
Brandenburg (BB)	32.5%	7.2%	26.3%	+33k	13	Public svcs 36%	Elevated — Woidke+BSW
Saarland (SL)	21.6%	15.1%	25.2%	+11k	14	Public svcs 35%	Federal/local gap (LT 6.1%)
Berlin (BE)	15.2%	22.5%	19.0%	+69k	5	Public svcs 39%	Metro ceiling — poll 4th
Nordrhein-Westfalen (NW)	16.8%	15.8%	21.8%	+173k	9	Public svcs 35%	Low — AfD LT 5.4%

Full 16-row table: research/laender_master_comparison.md

Takeaway: AfD BT hotspots share low foreign % + high 65+ + east; western firewall cases (NW, SH) combine moderate foreign % with weak Landtag AfD. Sector label alone (public/services everywhere) does not rank Länder — pair with GDP/cap and demography.

Scenario weights (analyst view, Sep 2026)

Path	Weight	Trigger	ST update
Agenda capture, firewall holds	~65%	ST Kenya+BSW forms; MV rot-rot-grün; Berlin CDU-led without AfD	Supported — 39 seats, anti-AfD bloc 44 with BSW
Partial erosion (BSW/CDU toleration, TH-style)	~30%	BSW kingmaker; CDU governs with BSW after AfD 1st; rhetorical softening	Raised — BSW mandatory for majority; not yet toleration of AfD
Executive breach (AfD ministers/MP)	~5%	CDU/SPD coalition or investiture with AfD	Unchanged — Schulze congratulated AfD but no talks; VS confirmed extremist ST

What would move weights: BSW refuses Kenya+ → deadlock (+operational risk, not breach). CDU ST branch opens “technical cooperation” → partial erosion →40%. Any ministerial post for AfD → breach dominant; recant base case.

Data gaps / refresh triggers

Item	Action
MV + BE results	Replace polls after 20 Sep 2026
ST official result	Replace projection when Landeswahlleiter publishes
Sector employment (13312)	Done — all 16 Länder in `laender_sectors.csv`; fact sheets flag jobs as GDP-composition proxy (no Land-level expenditure breakdown)
GVA by sector (€)	Optional VGR 82000 — upgrade from headcount proxy if needed
PESTLE scores	Optional numeric 1–5 layer on master CSV

Sources

research/data/laender_master.csv · research/laender_master_comparison.md
research/data/laender_sectors.csv (13312-01-05-4-B, all 16 Länder)
reference/laender/DE-*.md (16 fact sheets)
research/glossary.md · research/electoral_margin_matrix.md · research/data/table_codes.md
Bundeswahlleiterin BT 2025 by Land
Statistikportal VGR · Destatis 12411 / 12711 · Regionalstatistik 13211 / 13312

Part 06

Electoral matrix

ST / MV / BE vote share versus executive power

Purpose: Link Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) vote share to institutional outcomes (first place vs executive power). As of: 6 Sep 2026 (Sachsen-Anhalt result preliminary; MV/BE polls pre-election).

Terms and abbreviations

Term	Meaning
ST	Sachsen-Anhalt (Saxony-Anhalt) — Landtag election 6 Sep 2026
MV	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern — Landtag election 20 Sep 2026
BE	Berlin — state election (Abgeordnetenhaus) 20 Sep 2026
AfD	Alternative für Deutschland
LT	Landtag (state parliament) election result or poll %
AHG	Abgeordnetenhauswahl — Berlin state election (2023 repeat is last valid result)
Brandmauer	“Firewall” — refusal to govern with AfD
BSW	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht
Kenya	Grüne + CDU + SPD coalition (informal label)
Rot-rot-grün	SPD + Die Linke + Grüne
pp	Percentage points
Verfassungsschutz	Domestic intelligence service

Full list: research/glossary.md

Thesis (conviction)

Publishable view: Near-term German political risk for corporates is agenda capture while the Brandmauer (firewall) holds — not regime change.


Base case	AfD wins votes and sets debate (migration, energy, fiscal); mainstream parties still appoint ministers and pass Land budgets without AfD signatures.
ST proof point	AfD 44.2%, +26.2 pp, record turnout — yet 39/42 seats. A Kenya + BSW bloc reaches 44/83 in the Landtag (state parliament). First place did not convert to executive access on election night.
Forbidden case	Price Dexit, Russia reset, or federal AfD cabinet only if Bundestag arithmetic changes — not from one Landtag surge.
Recant	Any of the four triggers below → reprice to executive breach.

Structural context (Destatis 2024 · laender_master_comparison.md): Sachsen-Anhalt (ST) combines lowest-tier GDP/cap (€38,559), highest age 65+ share (28.2%), below-average foreign nationals (7.6%), and positive net migration (+25,772) amid population shrink (−0.7% y/y). The result is not explained by Land-level foreign-stock alone — it reinforces the PESTLE read: ageing + economic stagnation + eastern party system, with migration salient as federal narrative, not as a simple demographic correlate.

Summary

State	Election	AfD	Margin	Structure	Anti-AfD	Outlook
Sachsen-Anhalt (ST)	6 Sep RESULT	44.2% LT	+26.2 pp vs CDU	Foreign 7.6% · 65+ 28.2% · GDP/c 16/16	44 seats (CDU+SPD+Linke+Grüne+BSW)	Brandmauer holds — Kenya+BSW arithmetically possible
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV)	20 Sep poll	~35%	+3 pp vs SPD	Foreign 6.3% · 65+ 27.8% · pop flat	~38 est. (SPD+Linke+Grüne)	Rot-rot-grün likely if polls hold
Berlin (BE)	20 Sep poll	~18%	−3 pp vs CDU	Foreign 22.5% · 65+ 19.0% · inflow +69k	~126 est. (all but AfD)	No path — 4th place, metro ceiling

Sachsen-Anhalt (DE-ST) — 6 Sep 2026

Source: Infratest dimap/ZDF/ARD projection, ~20:30–20:45, WDR · tagesschau

Result (preliminary)

Party	%	Seats	Δ vs 2021
AfD	44.2%	39	+16
CDU	18.0%	16	−24
Die Linke	~9%	8	−4
SPD	~8.8%	8	−1
Grüne	~8.7%	8	+2
BSW	5.1%	4	new
FDP	2.0%	0	−7

Turnout: 80.0% (record) · Landtag: 83 seats · Majority: 42

Coalition arithmetic

Bloc	Seats	Majority?
AfD alone	39	No (−3)
CDU + SPD + Linke + Grüne	40	No (−2)
CDU + SPD + Linke + Grüne + BSW	44	Yes
CDU + SPD + Grüne (Kenya)	32	No

Firewall vs breach — what ST settled

Question	ST answer (6 Sep preliminary)	Implication for thesis
Can AfD win first place in the east?	Yes — 44.2%, +16 seats vs 2021	Psychological barrier broken; eastern narrative no longer hypothetical
Can AfD win a Landtag majority alone?	No — 39/42; missed absolute majority in projection	Executive breach not triggered on count night
Can anti-AfD parties govern without AfD?	Yes, if BSW joins — 44 seats	BSW = pivot; partial erosion risk rises if BSW overplays leverage
Did CDU open coalition with AfD?	No — Schulze congratulated; no talks	Recant trigger #1 not met
Does Verfassungsschutz block easy CDU pivot?	Yes — ST AfD confirmed extremist	Extra friction vs MV (no confirmed-extremist tag)

Bottom line for article: ST is evidence for “surge without executive” — the gap between result strength and ministerial power still exists, but requires one more party (BSW) in the anti-AfD sum than before. That is partial erosion in coalition mechanics, not breach.

Scenario → institutional outcome

Scenario	Probability (analyst)	Outcome	Risk repricing
A — Brandmauer coalition	High	CDU-led or rotating Kenya + BSW toleration; AfD excluded despite 1st place	Base case unchanged — agenda capture, not executive
B — Protracted deadlock	Medium	Weeks of talks; caretaker Haseloff/Schulze continues	Operational delay only
C — AfD absolute majority	Low (missed by ~1 seat in projection)	Solo rule attempt	Partial case — would have triggered on 42+ seats
D — CDU tolerates AfD	Very low	Minister posts for AfD or formal toleration	Thesis falsified

Margin interpretation

AfD +26 pp over CDU is the largest eastern margin in the set — but without 42 seats the firewall is arithmetically viable only with BSW. That makes BSW the pivot party (5.1% / 4 seats). Ulrich Siegmund (AfD) ruled out minority government; CDU’s Schulze congratulated AfD but did not open coalition talks.

Demographic read: ST’s AfD landslide sits alongside 7.6% foreign nationals (14th of 16) and 28.2% age 65+ (1st). Do not infer “migration stock drives AfD share” from ST alone — the Land is old, poor, shrinking, with net migration positive but insufficient to reverse decline. Article line: structural east + salience of migration policy, not a simple foreigners-percentage story.

Verfassungsschutz: ST AfD = confirmed extremist Landesverband → extra barrier to CDU cooperation.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (DE-MV) — 20 Sep 2026

Poll source: Infratest dimap, field 26–31 Aug 2026, NDR MV-Trend

Poll snapshot

Party	Poll %	LT 2021 %
AfD	35	16.7
SPD	32	39.6
Linke	11	9.9
CDU	8	13.3
Grüne	5	6.3
BSW	4 (out)	—

Seat estimate (71-seat baseline, proportional): AfD ~27 · SPD ~25 · Linke ~9 · CDU ~6 · Grüne ~4

Coalition scenarios

Coalition	Poll seats (est.)	Notes
SPD + Linke + Grüne (rot-rot-grün)	~38	Majority — continuation of Schwesig model + Greens
AfD alone	~27	Far below majority
AfD + any one partner	≤36	No partner available
SPD + CDU	~31	Insufficient; CDU at historic low

Scenario → institutional outcome

Scenario	Trigger	Outcome
AfD 1st, SPD 2nd, rot-rot-grün	Poll band holds	AfD Landtagspräsident claim possible; government without AfD
SPD overtakes AfD	Schwesig momentum (NDR: 56% want SPD-led govt)	Status quo reinforced
BSW enters at 5%+	BSW clears threshold	Complicates arithmetic; likely still anti-AfD majority
CDU @ 8%	Historic collapse	CDU irrelevant for coalitions

Poll paradox: 56% prefer SPD-led government vs 31% AfD-led — classic second-choice firewall.

Structural parallel to ST: MV shares ST’s profile on low foreign % (6.3%) and high 65+ (27.8%) but differs on economics (GDP growth +1.4% 2025, vs ST −0.2%). If MV polls hold, expect AfD 1st without executive again — rot-rot-grün ~38 seats on current estimates — unless BSW clears 5% and reshuffles pivots.

Verfassungsschutz: MV AfD not in confirmed-extremist five — slightly lower institutional barrier than ST, but all parties maintain Brandmauer rhetorically.

Berlin (DE-BE) — 20 Sep 2026

Poll source: Infratest dimap, field 27–31 Aug 2026, dawum

Poll snapshot

Party	Poll %	AHG 2023 %
CDU	21	28.2
Linke	19	12.2
AfD	18	9.1
Grüne	18	18.4
SPD	11	18.4

Seat estimate (159 seats): CDU ~38 · Linke ~35 · AfD ~33 · Grüne ~33 · SPD ~20

Coalition scenarios

Bloc	Est. seats	Notes
CDU + SPD (current)	~58	Likely short of 80 — needs third partner
CDU + Grüne + SPD	~91	Classic “Deutschland” coalition variant
CDU + Linke + Grüne + SPD (all but AfD)	~126	Overwhelming anti-AfD
Any coalition with AfD	0	All parties rule out

Scenario → institutional outcome

Scenario	Outcome	Risk
AfD ~18%, no first place	Doubling since 2023; still 4th	No executive path — metropolitan ceiling
CDU leads fragmented field	Wegner continuation likely with SPD or Greens	Base case
Linke surge to 19%	Red-red or left-leaning options harder for CDU	Coalition friction, not AfD risk

Berlin falsifies the “AfD wins everywhere in the East” narrative when read alongside ST: capital polarises differently from rural east — 22.5% foreign, +69k net migration, AfD poll ~18% (4th) despite BT 15.2%.

Cross-state comparison

                    AfD        First?   Seats alone?   Foreign%  Age65+   Brandmauer stress
ST (result)         44.2%      YES      NO (39/42)     7.6%      28.2%    EXTREME — BSW pivot
MV (poll)           35%        YES*     NO (~27/36)    6.3%      27.8%    HIGH — rot-rot-grün
BE (poll)           18%        NO       NO             22.5%     19.0%    LOW — all vs AfD

\*MV: statistical tie possible with SPD within MOE

Pattern: AfD first-place stress (ST, MV) clusters with low foreign % + high 65+ — not with Berlin/Hamburg migration profiles. Executive breach remains a coalition-signature question, not a vote-share question.

Recant triggers (publishable kill conditions)

Reprice from agenda capture to executive breach if any of:

Established party forms coalition with AfD or grants ministerial posts
Formal toleration (budget, investiture) acknowledged as governing arrangement
AfD Ministerpräsident elected with external support
Union explicitly abandons Brandmauer as principle

Trigger	ST 6 Sep status	Next watch
#1 Coalition with AfD	Not met — no talks opened	CDU Land party congress; BSW demands
#2 Formal toleration	Not met	Minority-government speculation (AfD ruled out)
#3 AfD MP elected	Not met — 39 seats	—
#4 Brandmauer abandoned	Not met — Merz/Schulze rhetoric mixed but no pact	Federal CDU if ST Kenya+ fails

Article discipline: A 1–2 pp poll move does not recant the thesis. Only institutional acts (signature, investiture, minister list) do.

Sources

State	Result / poll	URL
ST	LT 2026 projection	https://www1.wdr.de/politik/wahlen/afd-gewinnt-landtagswahl-in-sachsen-anhalt-klar-100.html
ST	tagesschau	https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt-172.html
MV	Infratest / NDR	https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/mecklenburg-vorpommern/landtagswahl/mv-trend-spd-verkuerzt-rueckstand-zur-afd-cdu-rutscht-weiter-ab,mvtrend-168.html
BE	Infratest / dawum	https://dawum.de/Berlin/Infratest_dimap/2026-09-02/
MV LT 2021	Landtag MV	https://www.landtag-mv.de/landtag/rund-um-wahlen/landtagswahl-2021
BE AHG 2023	Berlin.de	https://www.berlin.de/en/news/8063615-5559700-official-result-of-the-berlin-election-a.en.html
Demographics / sectors	Destatis 12411, 12711, 13312	`research/laender_master_comparison.md`
Glossary	Terms and Land codes	`research/glossary.md`
PESTLE synthesis	Analyst	`research/pestle_brief_germany_laender.md`

Part 07

Glossary

Parties, institutions and Destatis codes

As of: September 2026 · Used across PESTLE brief, electoral matrix, fact sheets, and dossier HTML.

Federal states (Bundesländer) — ISO codes

Code	German name	English name
DE-ST	Sachsen-Anhalt	Saxony-Anhalt
DE-MV	Mecklenburg-Vorpommern	Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
DE-BE	Berlin	Berlin (city-state)
DE-BB	Brandenburg	Brandenburg
DE-SN	Sachsen	Saxony
DE-TH	Thüringen	Thuringia
DE-BW	Baden-Württemberg	Baden-Württemberg
DE-BY	Bayern	Bavaria
DE-HB	Bremen	Bremen (city-state)
DE-HH	Hamburg	Hamburg (city-state)
DE-HE	Hessen	Hesse
DE-NI	Niedersachsen	Lower Saxony
DE-NW	Nordrhein-Westfalen	North Rhine-Westphalia
DE-RP	Rheinland-Pfalz	Rhineland-Palatinate
DE-SH	Schleswig-Holstein	Schleswig-Holstein
DE-SL	Saarland	Saarland

In tables and briefs, ST = Sachsen-Anhalt, MV = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, BE = Berlin, etc.

Parties and blocs

Term	Meaning
AfD	Alternative für Deutschland — right-wing populist party
CDU	Christlich Demokratische Union — Christian Democratic Union (centre-right)
CSU	Christlich-Soziale Union — Bavarian sister party of CDU
SPD	Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands — Social Democratic Party
Grüne	Bündnis 90/Die Grünen — Greens
Linke	Die Linke — The Left
BSW	Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht — left-populist party (2024+)
FW	Freie Wähler — Free Voters (mainly Bavaria)
Kenya	Colloquial coalition label: Grüne + CDU + SPD (colours of Kenyan flag)
Rot-rot-grün	SPD + Linke + Grüne coalition (red-red-green)
Brandmauer	“Firewall” — refusal of mainstream parties to govern with AfD

Elections and institutions

Term	Meaning
BT / BT 2025	Bundestag (federal parliament) election; Zweitstimme = party-list vote share
LT	Landtag (state parliament) election
AHG	Abgeordnetenhauswahl — Berlin state election (repeat election 2023)
Bundestag	Federal parliament
Landtag	State parliament (most Länder); Berlin: Abgeordnetenhaus
Bundesrat	Upper chamber representing the 16 Länder
Ministerpräsident	State premier (governor)
Verfassungsschutz	Domestic intelligence service (Office for the Protection of the Constitution)
Schuldenbremse	Constitutional debt brake (Art. 115 GG)

Economics and statistics

Term	Meaning
Bundesland / Länder	Federal state(s) of Germany (16)
GDP/cap	GDP per capita (nominal, €)
VGR	Volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung — regional national accounts
Destatis	Statistisches Bundesamt — Federal Statistical Office
Erwerbstätige	Employed persons (employees + self-employed)
13312	Destatis statistic: Erwerbstätigenrechnung der Länder (employment by sector)
12411	Destatis statistic: population (Fortschreibung)
12711	Destatis statistic: migration flows
13211	Destatis statistic: unemployment (Regionalstatistik)
WZ08	German industry classification (sections used in sector tables)
pp	Percentage points (e.g. +26.2 pp = 26.2-point margin)

Scenario labels (analyst)

Term	Meaning
Agenda capture	AfD shapes debate and policy direction without holding executive office
Executive breach	AfD enters government (ministerial posts, toleration, or Ministerpräsident)
Partial erosion	Firewall weakens (e.g. BSW pivot, CDU–BSW) without AfD in cabinet
Recant / kill condition	Observation that would falsify the base-case thesis

Geography

Term	Meaning
East / Ost	Former GDR Länder (+ Berlin): BB, BE, MV, SN, ST, TH
West	Former West Germany Länder (excluding Berlin)
Neue Länder	New federal states (post-1990 eastern states)

Rebuild dossier glossary tab: included in output/germany_laender_dossier.html · Source: research/glossary.md

Germany Länder dossier

Article

A Landslide That Stops at the Door

Age and Stagnation, Not a Foreigners Map

What Magdeburg Changes — and What It Does Not

Two More Sundays

References

Germany

BT 2025

16-Land reconciliation

Jobs (2024)

16-Länder stats

Terms and abbreviations

Land key

Demographics & population

Economy & employment

Elections (AfD)

Notes

Fact sheets

Baden-Württemberg

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Bavaria

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Berlin

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Brandenburg

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Bremen

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Hamburg

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Hesse

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Lower Saxony

Politics

Jobs (2024)

North Rhine-Westphalia

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Rhineland-Palatinate

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Saarland

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Schleswig-Holstein

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Saxony

Politics

Jobs (2024)

Saxony-Anhalt

Politics

Coalition outlook (post-election)

Jobs (2024)

Thuringia

Politics

Jobs (2024)

PESTLE

Terms and abbreviations

Analyst thesis (publishable view)

Executive summary

P — Political

E — Economic

S — Social

T — Technological

L — Legal / institutional

E — Environmental

Cross-Land comparison matrix

Scenario weights (analyst view, Sep 2026)